India would be banning cryptocurrencies as a method of payment but would regulate its use as an asset according to a report by the Economic Times. A legislative bill on crypto regulation is planned to be presented in the winter session of parliament. According to reports, the details of this bill are still being finalized. In the bill, authorities also plan on banning “active solicitation” from crypto firms which includes exchanges and platforms.

The current plan is a deviation from the government’s earlier plans to outrightly ban cryptocurrencies in the country. The Reserve Bank of India had in April 2018, banned regulated entities, financial institutions, from dealing in cryptocurrencies and providing services for facilitating any person or entity in dealing with cryptocurrencies. That, however, was overruled by the Supreme Court in March 2020 with the Court stating that while unregulated, cryptocurrencies were not illegal in India.

With the currently proposed legislation, the government seems to want to take a middle road on its stance with cryptocurrencies. The bill is also expected to address taxation aspects of the market. As for a regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) seems to be a likely candidate although according to the Economic Times, that is yet to be finalized.

Meanwhile, still on the continent of Asia, China is ramping up and tightening its control of crypto mining. The spokesperson for China’s National Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei stated this during a press conference on Tuesday. She said the NDRC would be launching a “full scale” clamp down on any mining holdouts still left in the country.

This comes on the heels of China’s outright ban on crypto mining which took China’s global share of mining operations essentially offline overnight. Miners in China had moved their equipment and operations to neighboring Kazakhstan, Europe and the U.S. The Chinese government’s criticism of the mining industry has been attributed to it’s enormous energy use and environmental impact which threatens to jeopardize the nation’s goal of carbon net zero by 2060.

In apparent response to the news, a selloff was induced and the price of Bitcoin fell by about 7% to $60,889 while Ether slid by about 8% to $4,297.

Everyone who dabbles in the crypto industry learns almost immediately that the market is very volatile and oftentimes things can change very quickly. That volatility is the fundamental reason why some investors make absolutely stunning gains in so short a time and others lose a lot of money as well. Trading in crypto is one of the riskiest ventures any person can undertake and as they say, it’s not for the faint of heart. The risks can be mitigated of course and sometimes depends specifically on the coin or crypto asset being traded on, barring general market trends.

Nevertheless, to get to the bottom of the volatility concept, one must understand speculation in the market. To start off, the concept of speculation isn’t limited to cryptocurrencies, on the contrary, speculation has existed for as long as economics and trading has. But it is worth saying that speculation is often a feature of novel sectors, assets, commodities and the like. So, even though cryptocurrencies have been around for more than a decade, they’re still in their infancy as far as markets go. One could say that the market is still trying to find its feet.

One of the fundamental reasons why cryptocurrencies are so volatile is that they are fundamentally backed by nothing of value outside the attention that they get. Unlike many fiat currencies which are either pegged to another currency’s value or whose value is unilaterally determined by a central authority, cryptocurrencies only derive value as a function of how many people are willing to use is to transact, i.e. trust in the asset because other people trust it. As a rule of thumb, the larger the number of people who accept the asset, the more valuable it becomes.

This is one of the hallmarks of speculative trading. In the crypto world or in any market that’s novel and untested, many people are in it to win it which means their strategies in trade has the objective of making as much profits as possible in the short term. Therefore, the market enters a subtly dangerous cycle of rapidly changing prices of assets. Basically, investors typically buy assets when prices are low and wait. As more investors are attracted to the commodity for its low prices, it sets off a cascade where more people buy in, causing the price to steadily rise. 

However, all good things must come to an end and it almost always gets to a breaking point whereupon the price gets high enough for investors to begin to sell. This reverses the earlier cascade and as more and more investors pull out, the prices can fall dramatically causing even more to sell off in fear of losing whatever investments they have left. The prices having fallen resets the game and primes investors to begin buying again.

Volatility has been one of the talking points of many critics of cryptocurrencies often comparing it to a Ponzi scheme. And in certain cases, persons of interest with large pulls and audiences can substantially affect the rate at which prices rise and fall. Other factors include government regulations. Volatility at its core reflects the often chaotic nature of trade and market interactions and human hopes and fears.

Over the weekend, China, the biggest crypto mining country once again, began to clamp down on cryptocurrency. Ten Chinese agencies including the central bank and banking, securities and foreign exchange regulators have vowed to work hand in hand to expose illegal cryptocurrency activity.

China has always placed stricter rules on cryptocurrencies but the new rule has made all crypto-related activities illegal. According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), it is illegal to cryptocurrency trading and anyone that does so will be severely punished; this includes those within China that are working for overseas platforms. To fully phase out the cryptocurrency mining sector, the National Development and Reform Council (NDRC) said that it would launch a nationwide crackdown on cryptocurrency.

Over the years, China does not recognize cryptocurrency as a legal tender. In 2013, the Chinese government referred to Bitcoin as a virtual commodity that individuals are allowed to freely participate in. This freedom, however, precludes banks and payment companies from providing services that are Bitcoin related.

In 2017, Initial Coin Offering (ICO) was banned. The ban was also extended to the conversion of legal tenders to cryptocurrencies by trading platforms which led most of the platforms to shut down operations in China. The crackdown led 88 trading platforms and 85 ICO platforms to withdraw from the market as of July 2018.

To China, the crackdown on cryptocurrency is necessary as the country is trying to launch its official digital currency and the need to fulfil its 2060 climate targets. The crackdown was necessary as cryptocurrency was seen as infringing on people’s properties and ‘disrupting the normal economic order.’

The statement by PBOC on Friday was unequivocal as the current crackdown is distinct from the previous ones. In his statement on Friday, PBOC called Bitcoin, Ether and Tether ‘legally irreparable’ and should not be used. The new regulations forbid financial institutions, marketing and IT providers from supporting crypto-related activities. The activities of both crypto holders and miners are now considered illegal. This is what Henri Arslanian, a PwC crypto leader termed as “No ambiguity. No room for discussion. No grey areas” in his tweet.  

What does this mean for crypto holders worldwide?

The major effect of China’s crackdown on cryptocurrency is the increase in price volatility. While volatility is a common phenomenon in the crypto world, a crackdown initiated by the world biggest cryptocurrency mining country will have a huge effect on market price.    

After the PBOC interview, Bitcoin fell by 4% within 24 hours and is currently trading at $43,320. Ethereum fell by 6% and it is currently trading at $3,036. With the Evergrande debt crisis and the huge blow bedevilling the crypto market, a clampdown by China would most likely keep the market price on the red until another good news crops up.