Citibank’s $300k bitcoin prediction, what are the possibilities?

Cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and as such, predicting them can be extremely difficult. The fact remains that most predictions are usually very optimistic and usually miss the mark by a lot. 

A top banker at Citibank, Tom Fitzpatrick, has used technical analysis of prior highs and lows to predict a target of $318,000 by December 2021. Fitzpatrick pointed to bitcoin weekly charts to make his predictions.

The report containing the prediction was solely intended for Citibank’s institutional clients but was leaked into the crypto space on Twitter.  

According to Fitzpatrick, the whole of bitcoin’s existence has been characterised by major price swings, “exactly the kind of thing that sustains long term trend”. 

Fitzpatrick further likens bitcoin’s growth trajectory with that of gold in the 1970’s. For fifty years, gold was traded at between $20 and $35 dollars per ounce, before proper structural changes were made. The asset has now reached an all-time high of over $1,500.  

Noting Fitzpatrick’s report, gold could benefit  from bitcoin’s growth also but its limitations do not affect bitcoin. He writes in the report that, “Gold has restrictions such as storage, non-portability, and could possibly be even called ‘yesterday’s news’ in terms of a financial hedge. Bitcoin is the new gold.”

Unlike gold, bitcoin is easy to move across borders at the touch of a button and it is scarce. More investors will prefer bitcoin to gold for these reasons.

The optimistic prediction was however met with a less enthusiastic reaction. “This kind of technical analysis is of little value,” says CalssicMacro, commenting on his tweet. The comment adds that  “There is no edge in guessing targets so far in time with TA. All we know is that price is likely to continue going up.”

Fitzpatrick also notes in his paper that the target seems improbable. He writes “Improbable, though that seems it would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in percentage terms)”. 

We’ve seen predictions in the past and while it might create excitement in the crypto community and drive FOMOs they most times do not come true. For example, in 2019, Binance founder, Changpeng Zhao who, although, points out that he is not an active trader, predicted in early November that BTC would reach $16,000 ‘soonish’. The price stayed at $9,130. Zhao missed the mark by a good 35%.

More productions could come as bitcoin continues to rise rapidly but with the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, one can never truly tell what the future holds.

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